John’s Finance Corner: Last Week's Market Recap and Outlook
The past week has been a whirlwind for the financial markets, particularly for Bonds and Mortgage Rates, which have seen some of the most significant movements in the last two years. Let us dive into the details and what we can expect in the days ahead:
Mortgage Rates Take a Dip: We witnessed mortgage rates dipping to levels not seen since June 2023, offering a brief respite for borrowers. However, this rally was short-lived as subsequent data releases brought a sense of calm to the markets, realigning bonds, and rates to those observed in February. Despite this adjustment, mortgage rates remain at some of the lowest points we have seen in recent months.
Home Price Index and Market Trends: According to CoreLogic’s Home Price Index, home prices experienced a modest increase of 0.3% in June, continuing a trend of slowing yet strong appreciation gains. Year-over-year, prices are up by 4.7%. Looking ahead, CoreLogic conservatively predicts a similar rise in July and a 2.3% increase over the next year. Notably, active listings in July surged by 5.3% from June and have risen by 37% compared to last year, indicating a more dynamic housing market.
Employment and Inflation Data: The labor market showed signs of cooling, with Initial Jobless Claims dropping by 17,000, although Continuing Claims edged up slightly. This week, inflation data will be in the spotlight, starting with the Producer Price Index on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. These reports will be crucial in assessing the inflationary pressures within the economy.
Housing and Retail Updates: On Thursday, we will receive the latest Jobless Claims, Retail Sales data for July, and an update on home builder sentiment. Housing Starts and Building Permits for July will follow on Friday, providing further insights into the construction sector.
Looking Forward: The slight relief in mortgage rates was a welcome development, but the market’s momentum has since moderated. As we proceed, all eyes will be on the inflation reports and jobless claims to see if the markets can sustain last week’s momentum. While a gradual decrease in rates is anticipated, the financial markets are expected to experience fluctuations based on daily and weekly data. It is essential to stay informed about these real-time changes. The first Fed Fund Rate cut is still projected for September 18th, so stay tuned for regular updates on market reactions.
I will be here to help if you need any guidance or expertise for those looking to understand the impact on their mortgage options and financial planning, Give me a call today!
John Lamberg
Senior Loan Officer
Mobile 727.366.9947
Website ccm.com/john-lamberg
Email [email protected]
