John’s Finance Corner: September's Mixed Data
September presented a mixed bag of economic indicators, especially regarding home sales and unemployment filings, suggesting a slowdown in hiring. For the second consecutive month, existing home sales fell by 1% from August and 3.5% from the same time last year. With an annual pace of 3.84 million sales, it marked the lowest monthly total in 14 years, staying around a 4 million unit pace over the last 12 months.
While there were 1.39 million homes listed for sale nationwide at the end of September, up 1.5% from the previous month and 23% from the previous year, many of these homes were already under contract and not available for purchase. The true numbers show only 941,000 active listings, reflecting inventory levels well below pre-pandemic figures.
In employment, 227,000 initial jobless claims were reported, down 15,000 from the previous week. However, continuing claims rose by 28,000, sitting at 1.897 million people still receiving benefits after their initial claim. This indicates a slowdown in the hiring process and more extended periods of benefit collection.
The week of October 28th is critical for data and mortgage rates. Dubbed "jobs week," it includes the Jolts report on Tuesday, ADP on Wednesday, and the crucial BLS report on Friday. We’ll also see the latest GDP numbers, consumer confidence, initial/continuing jobless claims, and the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, the PCE.
The bond market faced a turbulent October, with levels not seen since July, pushing mortgage rates higher. Investor displeasure with federal spending and hesitancy ahead of the upcoming election add to the mix. This week's data and election results could significantly impact the Fed's actions as they meet to discuss the next course of action. There's anticipation that they might cut the Fed Fund Rate by another quarter percent, but new data could influence their decision as we head into the year's end.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate these evolving economic conditions together.
John Lamberg
Senior Loan Officer
Mobile 727.366.9947
Website ccm.com/john-lamberg
Email [email protected]
