John’s Finance Corner: Mortgage Rates Ease as Markets Await Key Inflation Data
With the ongoing government shutdown limiting access to fresh economic data, this past week has been relatively quiet — but not without some positive developments in the bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4%, a welcome sign that helped push mortgage rates to their lowest levels of the year. The slowdown in data releases has effectively calmed bond traders, reducing volatility and bringing a sense of short-term stability to the market. For homebuyers and those considering refinancing, these lower rates present an encouraging opportunity.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on this Friday’s upcoming CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, which will finally be released despite the shutdown. This particular report is essential because the data is needed to calculate Social Security cost-of-living adjustments for 2026.
While the release will be a relief for analysts and policymakers, I expect we may see a slight uptick in inflation within the CPI numbers. If that happens, it could cause bond yields to rise toward the end of the week, potentially nudging mortgage rates a bit higher again.
For now, the calm has been a welcome break, but next week should bring much more clarity and plenty to talk about. Hopefully, that clarity brings good news for borrowers and homeowners alike.
John Lamberg
MORTGAGE LOAN ORIGINATOR
NMLS 189233
