John’s Finance Corner: A Quiet Week with Subtle Signals for Mortgage Rates
Last week may have felt slow on the data front, but a couple of numbers quietly hint at where mortgage rates might head next. Let’s unpack why home prices are still chugging along, what rising jobless claims could mean for the Fed, and which reports this week deserve your attention.
Home Prices: Slow Growth, Steady Gain
We saw two big data releases:
- Cotality says national home prices ticked up 0.1% from May to June and are up 1.7% over the past year.
- ICE reported a similar 1.3% year-over-year increase in June.
Even in Florida—where some neighborhoods are seeing slight pullbacks—most markets still appreciate. To put it in real terms: a $500,000 home growing 4% in a year earns you an extra $20,000 on your investment. That’s the power of long-term real estate.
Jobless Claims: A Subtle Warning
Initial claims rose by 7,000 last week to 226,000. More eye-opening was continuing claims jumping 38,000 to nearly 2 million—the highest since late 2021. Those sticking on benefits suggest more people aren’t finding work quickly, and a softer labor market is exactly what the Fed watches when it considers cutting rates.
What’s on Deck This Week
Keep your radar on these releases—they could shake up bond yields and mortgage pricing:
- Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims
- Friday: July Retail Sales
If inflation readings surprise higher, expect mortgage rates to drift up. If they’re softer, you might see a window to refinance or lock in a better rate.
How to Navigate This
- If you’re refinancing, watch the CPI and PPI closely—strong inflation data usually nudges rates higher.
- Jobless claims can tip you off to Fed moves. A sustained labor-market slowdown often leads to rate cuts down the road.
- Have a timeline? If you need certainty on a mortgage rate for a purchase or refi, consider locking in before big reports drop.
- Unsure what’s right for you? Let’s talk through your goals and craft a plan together.
Even a quiet week can tell us a lot. By tracking home-price trends, monitoring jobless claims, and gearing up for the week’s big data, you’ll stay one step ahead. Ready to explore your mortgage options or lock in a rate? Reach out, and we’ll build a strategy that fits your timeline and goals.
John Lamberg
MORTGAGE LOAN ORIGINATOR
NMLS 189233
