John’s Finance Corner: Jobs Data Returns as Markets Await Fed Direction
After the longest government shutdown in history, the flow of critical economic data is finally resuming and the timing couldn’t be more important. These reports will help shape the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the months ahead as they monitor inflation, employment, and overall market stability.
Last week, we received the delayed September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which came in stronger than expected with 119,000 jobs added, compared to the forecasted 50,000. However, revisions to earlier months told a different story. July and August totals were revised downward, leaving August with a net decline of 4,000 jobs, following a 13,000 job loss in June the first back-to-back monthly declines since December 2020. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%, highlighting continued mixed signals within the labor market.
Because of the shutdown interruption, the BLS will release only a partial October report (excluding unemployment figures), with the full October and November updates not scheduled until December 16th. That’s a key detail because the Fed’s next policy meeting is December 9–10. Without the most current jobs data available before the meeting, the Fed’s ability to confidently proceed with another Federal Funds Rate cut remains uncertain.
It’s worth remembering that adjustments to the Federal Funds Rate impact short-term lending between banks not mortgage rates directly. In fact, after the two most recent cuts, mortgage rates actually increased, driven by bond market reaction rather than Fed policy alone.
This week brings a wave of additional delayed reports, including:
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September PPI inflation data
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Retail sales figures
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Home price appreciation reports from Case-Shiller and FHFA
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Pending home sales from NAR
One development that did positively affect markets last week was a statement from the President of the New York Federal Reserve, signaling his support for further rate cuts in the near term. His comments helped calm bond markets and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield lower, improving mortgage rates to levels not seen since late October. As more data becomes available, the Fed’s path may become clearer — but for now, markets remain divided.
While we wait for direction, watching the 10-year Treasury yield continues to be the most reliable indicator of real-time mortgage rate trends.
John Lamberg
MORTGAGE LOAN ORIGINATOR
NMLS 189233
